Bill Maher was Right: Trump was never going to go of his own accord

 

If you recall my post on this blog from Oct 13, I referred to Bill Maher's often repeated statements over the course of the Trump presidency that he would never leave voluntarily.  Bill was right.  The ongoing drama of the past 3 months since the election proves this true.  After the tragedy of last week's riot and deaths in the Capitol, the Constitution has worked though creaky and even Republicans congressmen and senators are starting to abandon him. His staff are vacating the west wing of the White House. No one tries to defend him not even his press secretary.  

What did we learn from this?

• The people who work on actually administering elections at the local and state level do a great job. They are diligent, work very long tedious hours and persevere through harassment at a local level (examples in Detroit and Philadelphia) and even hold up at the state level as we saw in Georgia after the President pressured and threatened the governor and the secretary of state who are fellow Republicans.
• The courts work. In lawsuit after lawsuit challenging the election results, the state and federal courts did their duty. It didn't matter if they were Republican judges or even judges appointed by Trump himself. They followed the process and the law.
• The Congress did its duty as a whole. A majority of legislators followed the Constitution.  
• Of course, we had some standouts who were craven opportunists, Cruz and Hawley stand out. But, they are just trying to appeal to the Trump base in hopes for running in 2024.
• We learned that there are a large amount of people who supported Trump. They are populists and believers in conspiracy theories. They don't know history and our laws and government. They are aggrieved and believe in a demagogue. We learned they can be violent and when in a mob, lose their minds 
• Trump is a failed man and a disaster as President. Now that Twitter has abandoned him, he is the bully who has been defanged and is fading from the public consciousness.

Conspiracies

I've thought about conspiracies a great deal. I know people from my hometown who were friends, graduated from college, and hold responsible positions in their communities. I cannot explain the belief in lies. I think that regarding conspiracies, many people including me have considered their possibility. I first became aware when I was a teenager and read the novel Captains and the Kings by Taylor Caldwell. In the novel an Irish immigrant builds a fortune and becomes part of a group of wealthy industrialists and financiers who control affairs of the country.  This particular story has the protagonist trying to make his son President of the US which was so similar to the story of the Kennedys and the plotting of Joseph Kennedy for his sons. Then there is the current television series the Blacklist on NBC featuring shadowy and powerful figures running the Cabal which controls the governments of the great powers. 

Perhaps it comes from the realization we all have at some point that we don't understand what is going on in the world and how things come about. I think we realize there are people who are probably smarter that we are, people who have more money, and people who have better connections.  All this is true.  Yes, people who know each other and who have resources do have opportunities most people don't have. Yes, we are aware of the power of cliques starting in junior high school. Yes, monopolists like to keep their secrets, pricing arrangements and control intact. When you are disadvantaged or even manipulated by the system, you resent that system and justifiably so. You look for explanations but some stories are just that, stories.

This is why we need to stop bullying in junior high school, offer opportunities to the disadvantaged, bring minorities into the mainstream, and go for diversity. We need to have antitrust laws and regulators. We need fair taxes and tax enforcement. We need to stop cheaters. Truly, everyone needs a fair shake. We need to trust the government and I think we can trust that the government ran fair elections based on my first two points at the beginning of this post. 

 I don't believe the Democratic party with all its divisions and inability to craft a good marketing message is capable of election fraud. Those yahoos cannot conspire to save their political lives; what makes anyone think they could pull off massive voter fraud in a voting system that is totally decentralized and not leave any evidence. No conspiracy, period.

Electoral College Reality

My sister Jean's birthday is December 14 which happens to be the same day the Electoral College's electors cast their votes for the President in 2020. FYI, I checked to see how many of her birthdays were concurrent with the Electoral College voting day and this is the third (1964, 1992 and 2020). The term I read is that the date of the Electoral College is usually a civics class afterthought. My sister never thought of December 14 as an afterthought I am sure. And, this year it certainly was not overlooked. In fact, it had some drama leading up to it with all the falsehoods about election fraud and spurious lawsuits. Thankfully, the judicial branch of government demonstrated some integrity and dismissed these fallacies of logic into the trash where they belong. Really, I think if a prospective law student wrote one of these briefs, they would never get an interview to law school. But, in the end the people who actually administer elections did their jobs and the the Electoral College had no drama whatsoever.

January 11, 1987  Cleveland Municipal Stadium

Perhaps things can start getting back to normal. And, the results of the Cleveland Browns football game last night make me think the universe is starting to get back in sync. You see, I am a Cleveland Browns fan and last night's last minute loss to Baltimore brought back that awful feeling I have had on similar Brown's losses, feelings of anger, betrayal, and then a deep despair that the world is not fair. The Browns have never been to a Super Bowl and they tend to lose heartbreaking games. For example, the 1986 AFC Championship loss to Denver culminated in "The Drive" was similar to last night's 4th quarter loss.  When you are a child you have fantasies of greatness realized vicariously through heroes. Of course, for most of us those visions do not get realized and we eventually become aware that such desperate hopes should not be wasted on a fantasy. So, last night made me painfully aware again of this lesson of adulthood. 

Similarly, the current occupant of the White house has had his childish fantasies squashed and he is having a difficult time. However, I doubt if he can ever let it go because he never has had the self-insight of why reality has not met his expectation. Undoubtedly, many of his diehard followers are feeling despair but hopefully most will move on and realize that their hero is just a failed man. They should quit hoping that their lives can be fixed by a man-child who has not realized his flaws or his fantasies. 

Whew! How's the Water?

 I am grateful that the US Presidential election turned out the way it did.  Nina and I were seriously disturbed by the Trump administration; we've been quite stressed, not sleeping well, and having fantasies of revolution and violence.  I know we're not alone. I am relieved but wish the Biden victory would have been greater, more decisive, in order to show Trump and his minions how much they were disliked.  However, over 71 million people, 47.7% of the voters, chose him. For the past four years I've attributed the 2016 election result of people voting for Trump to a significant group that didn't like Hillary and didn't understand how unqualified Trump was to be President. I assumed that many of those 2016 voters would now see the light. Joe Biden is likable by about everyone; he fits the stereotypical model of the older white male with a qualified resume; and Trump was now a known entity.  I was wrong and I really don't know why I am wrong.  Me and over 75 million other voters don't understand the 71 million Trump supporters and I bet they don't understand me.

David Foster Wallace gave a commencement speech at Kenyon College in 2005 that turned into a small book called This is Water. I'd read it a number of years ago and it came to mind when pondering these two bubbles of American citizens who don't understand each other at all. He uses some cryptic stories that illustrate our problem. He offers some explanations about individual's templates and beliefs. He posits that some of a person's world view comes because we're hardwired but that people are also "arrogant and certain of their own interpretations... Blind certainty, a close-mindedness that amounts to an imprisonment so total that the prisoner doesn't even know he's locked up." You can find the speech on YouTube or the whole transcription at  This is Water

David Foster Wallace goes on to say that we have control over how we think about things. "It means being conscious and aware enough to choose what you pay attention to and to choose how you construct meaning from experience. Because if you cannot exercise this kind of choice in adult life, you will be totally hosed." I think many of the people in both groups of voters in this election are caught up in their own world views, hardwiring based on how and where you were raised and the experiences we've had.  And, indeed you should admit to yourself that arrogance is a factor in your choices of what you choose to think about and believe.  

Dave Chappelle was on SNL last night and had a great monologue with some hard truths and advice. We have to recognize that both groups have had terrible feelings of anguish. Chappelle suggests we have to, "Find a way to live your life. Find a way to forgive each other. Find a way to find joy in your existence in spite of that feeling."  

Amen

We Are All in This Together

Whether we want to be or not

All humanity is one community and we all have one global sickness. We are all contagious and always have been, unconsciously infecting one another and yet caring for one another. There is really no division. Sometimes we need to be cared for and other times we do the caring. We must learn to stand in these two different places and then change places as life happens.

 

There are no perfect answers or absolute heroes. We must all wear a mask to protect the other from "me". Don't play the victim; it's a waste of time, yours and everyone else's. Just realize you and everyone else are in the circle of life. We will all have our time to suffer, to serve and to hopefully be, albeit slowly, enlightened.

Paraphrased from the letter Richard Rohr sent today.

Presidential Election

 Rage by Bob Woodward

I recently read Bob Woodward’s new book on Trump called Rage. He covers four primary topics that have occurred in the current administration: the turnover of the Secretaries of Defense and State and the Director of National Intelligence, the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, the relationship with North Korea, and the response to Covid-19. Woodward accomplishes this primarily by sharing direct conversations with either the parties involved or the President himself.  I believe his description of the conversations are accurate and fair. The quotations of the President in the book are similar to what I hear on radio and television. In addition, Woodward has not expressed undo bias in describing these four topics. I don’t believe Woodward is rooting against the President other than stating that because Trump is so fluid and volatile it is very difficult for people in his administration to stay in good graces; thus, these jobs are very difficult and stressful and turnover is inevitable. Regarding the Mueller investigation, he makes it clear that it was always under the control of political types such as Rod Rosenstein or William Barr but he provides no hint of allegation that there was collusion.

Lastly, we come to Covid-19.  Woodward gives Trump credit for shutting down international travel with China and the Europe based on the expert advice of scientists and his National Security team and for supporting the shut down of the economy. By the way, the National Security Director identified the coronavirus as the most significant security threat to the nation and to Trump's prospects for reelection at the end of December 2019.  Woodward by recounting the numerous conversations also illustrates that Trump was extremely conflicted about shutting down the economy because of its impact on reelection and how it makes him look. Woodward posed many hard questions to Trump about taking leadership on personal protective equipment and being a wartime president. Woodward coached Trump that if he was straight with the American public and took ownership and led, the public would back him and he would be reelected. But, that if he didn’t do those things and continued to deflect responsibility, he would lose in November.

State of the Election Today

So, here we are 21 days from the election. Biden is winning by significant margins in the polls. Even in the battleground states Biden has solid leads. If you’re a Biden supporter, things look good. Bill Maher the comedian who has a weekly HBO show that focuses on politics, despises Trump and believes with all his heart that Trump will not leave the White House even if defeated soundly.  He asks all his political guests, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Nancy Pelosi, etc .why they aren’t as worried as he is and what they are going to do about it.  All have stated that it’s a hypothetical and that they believe Trump is just bluffing in order to rile people up.  They all state that what we have to do is vote and turn out in huge numbers.  And, they are absolutely correct; first Biden has to win the vote and the more convincing the margin the harder it will be for Republicans to challenge the result. 

A Nefarious Scenario

However, last week Maher laid out what he believes Trump’s plan will be if he loses:

1. In our Constitution we have the Electoral College as a way of electing the President and Vice-President. When we vote on Nov 3 we are really electing electors in our state who are pledged to vote for either Biden or Trump on December 14 this year. Constitutionally, whoever wins the popular vote in each state wins the pledge of all the designated electors in that state.  Some states have lots of electors (California has 55) and many have just a few electors (AK, DL, DC, MT, ND, SD, VT and WY each get 3).  It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.
2. Here is the nefarious aspect of Bill Maher’s obsession.  What if the Republicans decide that they don’t trust the validity of the popular vote results in the battleground states such as Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. Their reasons would likely be voter fraud particularly around mail-in ballots. The Republicans control both houses of the state legislatures in all these battleground states. What if these states cannot agree on whose electors get to vote, Biden's or Trump's? What if any contested states don’t send in their electoral votes at all?
3. On January 6 a joint session of the US Congress meets and counts the electoral votes. If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives gets to decide. However, per our Constitution each state gets one vote only (California and Alaska are equal). The representatives in a given state decide upon a single candidate.  It takes 26 votes to win.  Republicans currently control 26 of the states in such a situation.  Two states are virtually tied, Michigan and Pennsylvania, so Democrats currently control only 22 states.  A new Congress is seated on January 1; thus, if more Democratic congressmen can be elected in Michigan and Pennsylvania and if two seats could flip in Florida, we would have a tie in  such a contingency. FYI, Nancy Pelosi realizes this and is fund raising to win more seats for her majority particularly in these close states.

Bottom Line

I don't think even Trump thought he would win in 2016. He creates such chaos that very strange things happen and I believe he could turn things around and still win the electoral college. If Trump loses the popular and the Electoral College elections as current polls project, I do not put it past him to follow the Bill Maher scenario which would start a very dark period in this country. I fear that rioting and rebellion on a large scale would occur.  So vote for a president and vote in your House and Senate elections, as well. Let us just make this a legitimate election and hope that both parties do their duty to support the will of the people. 

Air Quality in Portland is the Worst in the World

The West Coast is burning. Many have had their houses burned, their autos are skeletons and thousands are now refugees from the wild fires.  The West is too dry and the underbrush has not been thinned. By late August and September the forests are tinder and a spark and winds bring conflagration.  The smoke hangs over the states of Oregon, Washington and California. The smell permeates everything and can sting your eyes and make your throat sore even insides. Our dogs do not even want to go out for a walk.  I am sure asthma and lung disease will devastate many.

Climate change is real and now we are seeing the results both economically and personally.  Wait until the seas rise and all the dams and dikes cannot protect our low lying cities. Florida will be underwater as will the Eastern seaboard and the Gulf coast. You can deny science for so long to support your lifestyle but fires, air quality, water levels and our lungs do not care. They will react as the laws of physics, chemistry and biology dictate.  I suggest you vote as if your life depends upon it. Yes, dealing with climate change will be very expensive and disruptive but as Bernie Sanders said, "Expensive as opposed to what?"

The Jersey Shore of My Imagination

Where the Bruce is loud and the Rolling Rocks are cold

Jennifer Finney Boylan is a Philly girl who's family went to the Jersey Shore in the summers. She is now an author, transgender activist and English professor at Barnard College. She wrote this wonderfully evocative piece in the New York Times on Thursday August 20, 2020. I didn't grow up going to the Shore; I grew up in Ohio and we'd to Lake Erie which isn't a scene like the Atlantic coast. Not until my brother married into a Philadelphia family who went to the Jersey Shore, did I understand how wonderful and what an escape it is. My family started to join Tom and Leslie on Shore vacations. We rode out Hurricane Bob in 1991 at Cape May. My son loved the beach just like Jennifer Finney Boylan's friend Mickey said, "You know, this beach is a good idea." Families change where they vacation. Tom and Leslie tend to go to the Outer Banks and reside part time in the Poconos. My son Drew and his wife Sarah go to Virginia Beach. But this article will bring back those sights, sounds and smells which directly link to the memories of summers past.