Presidential Election

 Rage by Bob Woodward

I recently read Bob Woodward’s new book on Trump called Rage. He covers four primary topics that have occurred in the current administration: the turnover of the Secretaries of Defense and State and the Director of National Intelligence, the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, the relationship with North Korea, and the response to Covid-19. Woodward accomplishes this primarily by sharing direct conversations with either the parties involved or the President himself.  I believe his description of the conversations are accurate and fair. The quotations of the President in the book are similar to what I hear on radio and television. In addition, Woodward has not expressed undo bias in describing these four topics. I don’t believe Woodward is rooting against the President other than stating that because Trump is so fluid and volatile it is very difficult for people in his administration to stay in good graces; thus, these jobs are very difficult and stressful and turnover is inevitable. Regarding the Mueller investigation, he makes it clear that it was always under the control of political types such as Rod Rosenstein or William Barr but he provides no hint of allegation that there was collusion.

Lastly, we come to Covid-19.  Woodward gives Trump credit for shutting down international travel with China and the Europe based on the expert advice of scientists and his National Security team and for supporting the shut down of the economy. By the way, the National Security Director identified the coronavirus as the most significant security threat to the nation and to Trump's prospects for reelection at the end of December 2019.  Woodward by recounting the numerous conversations also illustrates that Trump was extremely conflicted about shutting down the economy because of its impact on reelection and how it makes him look. Woodward posed many hard questions to Trump about taking leadership on personal protective equipment and being a wartime president. Woodward coached Trump that if he was straight with the American public and took ownership and led, the public would back him and he would be reelected. But, that if he didn’t do those things and continued to deflect responsibility, he would lose in November.

State of the Election Today

So, here we are 21 days from the election. Biden is winning by significant margins in the polls. Even in the battleground states Biden has solid leads. If you’re a Biden supporter, things look good. Bill Maher the comedian who has a weekly HBO show that focuses on politics, despises Trump and believes with all his heart that Trump will not leave the White House even if defeated soundly.  He asks all his political guests, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Nancy Pelosi, etc .why they aren’t as worried as he is and what they are going to do about it.  All have stated that it’s a hypothetical and that they believe Trump is just bluffing in order to rile people up.  They all state that what we have to do is vote and turn out in huge numbers.  And, they are absolutely correct; first Biden has to win the vote and the more convincing the margin the harder it will be for Republicans to challenge the result. 

A Nefarious Scenario

However, last week Maher laid out what he believes Trump’s plan will be if he loses:

1. In our Constitution we have the Electoral College as a way of electing the President and Vice-President. When we vote on Nov 3 we are really electing electors in our state who are pledged to vote for either Biden or Trump on December 14 this year. Constitutionally, whoever wins the popular vote in each state wins the pledge of all the designated electors in that state.  Some states have lots of electors (California has 55) and many have just a few electors (AK, DL, DC, MT, ND, SD, VT and WY each get 3).  It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.
2. Here is the nefarious aspect of Bill Maher’s obsession.  What if the Republicans decide that they don’t trust the validity of the popular vote results in the battleground states such as Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. Their reasons would likely be voter fraud particularly around mail-in ballots. The Republicans control both houses of the state legislatures in all these battleground states. What if these states cannot agree on whose electors get to vote, Biden's or Trump's? What if any contested states don’t send in their electoral votes at all?
3. On January 6 a joint session of the US Congress meets and counts the electoral votes. If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives gets to decide. However, per our Constitution each state gets one vote only (California and Alaska are equal). The representatives in a given state decide upon a single candidate.  It takes 26 votes to win.  Republicans currently control 26 of the states in such a situation.  Two states are virtually tied, Michigan and Pennsylvania, so Democrats currently control only 22 states.  A new Congress is seated on January 1; thus, if more Democratic congressmen can be elected in Michigan and Pennsylvania and if two seats could flip in Florida, we would have a tie in  such a contingency. FYI, Nancy Pelosi realizes this and is fund raising to win more seats for her majority particularly in these close states.

Bottom Line

I don't think even Trump thought he would win in 2016. He creates such chaos that very strange things happen and I believe he could turn things around and still win the electoral college. If Trump loses the popular and the Electoral College elections as current polls project, I do not put it past him to follow the Bill Maher scenario which would start a very dark period in this country. I fear that rioting and rebellion on a large scale would occur.  So vote for a president and vote in your House and Senate elections, as well. Let us just make this a legitimate election and hope that both parties do their duty to support the will of the people.